Predicting Consequences

Moral reasoning involves predicting the consequences of an action before we act.  

There are always consequences when we take the action we think is right, and when we try to be good persons, and usually these include unintended as well as intended outcomes.  

When the likely beneficial outcomes of acting on an ethical presumption seem to outweigh the likely adverse outcomes, then predicting consequences confirms our presumption.  

But when we predict that the adverse consequences will outweigh the beneficial consequences, even when we are obeying an ethical rule or following an inspiring story, then we should consider whether to make an exception to the rule or to look to a different story for guidance. 

We must remember, however, that before we act we can never know for certain what the consequences will be.  

Therefore, we should take care in predicting what will result from acting on an ethical presumption. 

Here’s a memory device for doing ethics.  Think of your right eye as representing rules, and your left eye as representing stories.  You need both eyes for clear vision.  We rely on both rules and stories for doing ethics.  

Each eye has a pupil and an iris.  Think of the pupil of your right eye as representing rules about duty, and the iris as representing rules about rights.  Think of the pupil of your left eye as representing stories about character, and the iris of your left eye as representing stories about relationships. 

Your nose has two nostrils.  The right nostril stands for what we do know, and the left nostril stands for what we don't know.  Considering both is important for predicting the consequences of an ethical action.  

This memory device simply reminds us that, in doing ethics, we look at rules (about duty and rights) and at stories (about character and relationships) to construct a presumption, and then test this presumption by predicting (“smelling out”) what we do know (and don't know) about the likely consequences of acting on it. 

For a more detailed explanation of this practical approach to moral reasoning, you may wish to purchase Doing Ethics in a Diverse World by Robert Traer and Harlan Stelmach.  

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Consider a moral issue of concern to you, and how you think you should respond. Is your decision based on any rules that you think you have a duty to obey? Or, on any rights that you think you should protect?

If so, you believe that ethical decisions involve more than predicting and weighing the likely good and bad consequences of an action.
 

Perhaps, your moral concern involves being a certain kind of person. Why do you think you should be this way? Are you only concerned about the likely consequences of your actions?

The theory of Utilitarianism holds that consequences are all that need to be considered in making an ethical decision, for we should simply do what will result in "the greatest good for the greatest number."

In doing ethics, however, we clarify the rules we should follow and the kind of person we hope to be, before predicting the likely consequences of acting on our ethical presumption.